National Weather Service Area Forecast Discussion
954
FXUS66 KLOX 022126
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
226 PM PDT Thu May 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS...02/145 PM.
Dry weather will continue through Saturday morning. Increasing
onshore flow as well as greater coverage of night and morning low
clouds and fog will bring cooler temperatures to all areas Friday
through Sunday. An unseasonably cold storm system will brush the
area to the north this weekend with a chance for light
precipitation later Saturday into Sunday. A warming and drying
trend will develop next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...02/207 PM.
Temperatures today were overall fairly similar to Wednesday
despite the offshore trends up north and the strong eddy that
developed off the LA Coast last night. Interior areas (mountains
and far interior valleys) did experience 3-6 degrees of warming
with some additional lowering of humidities.
Going forward, the trends are decidedly cooler through the weekend
as another late system upper low moves into northern California
Saturday. Models have come to a good consensus on the track,
moving it inland north of the Bay area before sliding south along
the eastern Sierra Sunday. This track, though still mostly inland,
has enough southerly over-water trajectory to create some light
rain (around a quarter inch) across the Central Coast later
Saturday into Sunday. Less certainty on the southern extent of
rain but ensembles indicate just very light precip amounts (under
a tenth of an inch) south of Pt Conception. In the meantime,
expect to see increasing marine layer stratus Friday and
especially Saturday with cooler temperatures.
Increasing onshore flow will lead to increasing west to southwest,
especially Saturday afternoon across the mountains and deserts.
May need some low end wind advisories for those areas.
.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...02/217 PM.
The upper low will exit the area by Sunday night leading to
warming temperatures Monday (3-6 degrees). Onshore flow will be
much weaker and forecast gradients indicate the potential for
some breezy north winds in the mountains and across southern Santa
Barbara County early next week. After the warm up on Monday
temperatures are expected to stay pretty steady next week with
just minor day to day variations. Will likely have some marine
layer clouds returning to coastal areas by mid week. Otherwise it
looks like a fairly mundane weather pattern next week with very
minimal impacts.
&&
.AVIATION...02/1953Z.
At 1844Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2600 ft deep with an
inversion top at 5000 ft and a temperature of 16 C.
High confidence in desert TAFs and KPRB, moderate confidence
elsewhere. Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2
hours. There is a 20% chance of IFR-MVFR cigs at KSBP after 10Z
and a 30% chance of VFR conds through the period at KSMX. For
sites south of Point Conception, cigs could arrive as IFR upon
arrival, then lift to MVFR.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat changes
could be off by +/- 2 hours. Cigs could arrive as low as BKN008
and will lift through the period. There is a 20% chance of an
east wind component of 7-8 kt 09Z-15Z Fri.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 12Z TAF. Timing of flight cat changes
could be off by +/- 2 hours, with a 30% chance of cigs will
arrive as early as 07Z tonight.
&&
.MARINE...02/133 PM.
In the outer waters, an extended period of gusty winds are
expected with periods of Gale Force possible through much of next
week. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds are expected to
increase to Gales (70-80% chance) this afternoon, then continue
thru late tonight. Winds will likely drop to SCA levels late
tonight thru Fri afternoon, then Gales are likely for the waters
north of Point Conception (60-70% chance) late Fri afternoon thru
late Fri night. Winds will drop Sat morning, possibly even below
SCA levels, but seas will remain at SCA levels. SCA level winds
are expected Sat afternoon thru Mon, with a 40% chance of Gales
Sun afternoon/evening.
In the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, SCA level winds and seas will
continue thru late tonight. Then, SCA level winds are likely
during the afternoon/eve hours Fri, Sun, and Mon (60-70% chance),
with a 40-50% chance Sat afternoon/eve.
In the SBA Channel, SCA level winds are likely in western portions
of the channel during the late afternoon thru late night hours
today and Fri (50% chance), and in most of the SBA Channel during
the late afternoon thru late night hours Sat thru Mon. There is a
20% chance of gales Sun afternoon/eve.
In the southern inner waters, there is a 20% chance of SCA level
winds in NW portions (from Anacapa Island to Malibu) during the
late afternoon/eve hours today and Fri. SCA level winds are likely
during the late afternoon thru late evening hours Sat thru Sun,
especially in western portions, then there is a 40% chance Mon.
There is a 20% chance of gales Sun afternoon/evening.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for
zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones
670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Lund
MARINE...DB/Lund
SYNOPSIS...MW
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox
NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion
